A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
